Impact of increased renewables on natural gas markets in eastern United States

Abstract

This paper explores the market structures of natural gas and electricity as well as the interdependence of natural gas prices and bids with increasing reliance on natural gas as the penetration of renewable energy resources increases in order to complement their intermittencies. In particular, the paper will attempt to answer the following two questions: What could the generation mix look like in 2030 with a renewable-rich generation landscape and how could this impact gas prices? How do gas-fired generator (GFG) generation volatility, their prices, and their bids for gas change between 2015 and 2030 with increased penetration of renewables? In order to answer these questions, computational models are derived using forecasting and regression analysis tools and an auction model.