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dc.contributor.authorLin, Ning
dc.contributor.authorEmanuel, Kerry Andrew
dc.date.accessioned2017-06-01T13:37:33Z
dc.date.available2017-06-01T13:37:33Z
dc.date.issued2015-08
dc.date.submitted2015-03
dc.identifier.issn1758-678X
dc.identifier.issn1758-6798
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/109495
dc.description.abstractWe define ‘grey swan’ tropical cyclones as high-impact storms that would not be predicted based on history but may be foreseeable using physical knowledge together with historical data. Here we apply a climatological–hydrodynamic method to estimate grey swan tropical cyclone storm surge threat for three highly vulnerable coastal regions. We identify a potentially large risk in the Persian Gulf, where tropical cyclones have never been recorded, and larger-than-expected threats in Cairns, Australia, and Tampa, Florida. Grey swan tropical cyclones striking Tampa, Cairns and Dubai can generate storm surges of about 6 m, 5.7 m and 4 m, respectively, with estimated annual exceedance probabilities of about 1/10,000. With climate change, these probabilities can increase significantly over the twenty-first century (to 1/3,100–1/1,100 in the middle and 1/2,500–1/700 towards the end of the century for Tampa). Worse grey swan tropical cyclones, inducing surges exceeding 11 m in Tampa and 7 m in Dubai, are also revealed with non-negligible probabilities, especially towards the end of the century.en_US
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherNature Publishing Groupen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2777en_US
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alikeen_US
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/en_US
dc.sourceProf. Emanuel via Chris Sherratten_US
dc.titleGrey swan tropical cyclonesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.citationLin, Ning, and Kerry Emanuel. “Grey Swan Tropical Cyclones.” Nature Climate Change 6, no. 1 (August 31, 2015): 106–111.en_US
dc.contributor.departmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciencesen_US
dc.contributor.approverEmanuel, Kerryen_US
dc.contributor.mitauthorLin, Ning
dc.contributor.mitauthorEmanuel, Kerry Andrew
dc.relation.journalNature Climate Changeen_US
dc.eprint.versionAuthor's final manuscripten_US
dc.type.urihttp://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticleen_US
eprint.statushttp://purl.org/eprint/status/PeerRevieweden_US
dspace.orderedauthorsLin, Ning; Emanuel, Kerryen_US
dspace.embargo.termsNen_US
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082
mit.licensePUBLISHER_POLICYen_US
mit.metadata.statusComplete


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