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The impact of high-speed rail and low-cost carriers on European air passenger traffic

Author(s)
Clewlow, Regina Ruby Lee; Sussman, Joseph M; Balakrishnan, Hamsa
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Abstract
The expansion of high-speed passenger rail service is often argued as a potentially effective, lower-carbon substitute for intercity air travel. Previous studies on the impact of high-speed rail on air travel in Europe and Asia have primarily examined the impact of travel time and price on market share for a specific city pair (or a handful of city pairs). There has been little focus on the extent to which high-speed rail (HSR) has reduced total short-haul air travel demand (versus market share), or on the potential impacts of high-speed rail on system-wide air travel demand. This paper presents an empirical, econometric analysis of air travel demand in Europe, utilizing an expanded data set to explore: (1) the impact of rail travel times, population density, and market characteristics on air traffic; and (2) the impact of high-speed rail and low-cost-carriers on system-wide air traffic. Although improvements in rail travel times have resulted in reductions in short-haul air travel, variations in city and airport characteristics significantly influence the substitution between air and rail. This paper also finds that HSR substitution has resulted in a modest reduction in system-wide air travel demand, whereas the expansion of low-cost carriers has led to a significant increase in total European air traffic. As concerns about the climate impacts of transportation grow, these results have significant implications for future transport and energy policy.
Date issued
2014-04
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/110725
Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics; Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division; Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Institute for Data, Systems, and Society
Journal
Transport Policy
Publisher
Elsevier
Citation
Clewlow, Regina R., Joseph M. Sussman, and Hamsa Balakrishnan. “The Impact of High-Speed Rail and Low-Cost Carriers on European Air Passenger Traffic.” Transport Policy 33 (2014): 136–143.
Version: Author's final manuscript
ISSN
0967-070X

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