MIT Libraries logoDSpace@MIT

MIT
View Item 
  • DSpace@MIT Home
  • MIT Open Access Articles
  • MIT Open Access Articles
  • View Item
  • DSpace@MIT Home
  • MIT Open Access Articles
  • MIT Open Access Articles
  • View Item
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

Evaluating the causes of cost reduction in photovoltaic modules

Author(s)
Kavlak, Goksin; McNerney, James M; Trancik, Jessika
Thumbnail
DownloadAccepted version (746.0Kb)
Terms of use
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Metadata
Show full item record
Abstract
Photovoltaic (PV) module costs have declined rapidly over forty years but the reasons remain elusive. Here we advance a conceptual framework and quantitative method for quantifying the causes of cost changes in a technology, and apply it to PV modules. Our method begins with a cost model that breaks down cost into variables that changed over time. Cost change equations are then derived to quantify each variable's contribution. We distinguish between changes observed in variables of the cost model – which we term low-level mechanisms of cost reduction – and research and development, learning-by-doing, and scale economies, which we refer to as high-level mechanisms. We find that increased module efficiency was the leading low-level cause of cost reduction in 1980–2012, contributing almost 25% of the decline. Government-funded and private R&D was the most important high-level mechanism over this period. After 2001, however, scale economies became a more significant cause of cost reduction, approaching R&D in importance. Policies that stimulate market growth have played a key role in enabling PV's cost reduction, through privately-funded R&D and scale economies, and to a lesser extent learning-by-doing. The method presented here can be adapted to retrospectively or prospectively study many technologies, and performance metrics besides cost. Keyword: Photovoltaics (PV); Solar energy; PV modules; Cost model; Technological change
Date issued
2018-12
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/123492
Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Institute for Data, Systems, and Society
Journal
Energy Policy
Publisher
Elsevier Science
Citation
Kavlak, Goksin et al. "Evaluating the causes of cost reduction in photovoltaic modules." Energy Policy 123 (December 2018): 700-710 © 2018 Elsivier Ltd.
Version: Author's final manuscript
ISSN
0301-4215

Collections
  • MIT Open Access Articles

Browse

All of DSpaceCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjectsThis CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjects

My Account

Login

Statistics

OA StatisticsStatistics by CountryStatistics by Department
MIT Libraries
PrivacyPermissionsAccessibilityContact us
MIT
Content created by the MIT Libraries, CC BY-NC unless otherwise noted. Notify us about copyright concerns.