Time of steady climate change
Author(s)
Lickley, Megan Jeramaz; Cael, B. B.; Solomon, Susan
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Under an emission scenario where atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized, previous work suggests that on centennial time scales the rate of global temperature increases would steady at significantly lower rates than those of the 21st century. As climate change is not globally uniform, regional differences in achieving this steady rate of warming can be expected. Here, we define a “Time of Steady Change” (TSC) as the time of reaching this steady rate of warming, and we present a method for estimating TSC with the use of General Circulation Model experiments run under greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios. We find that TSC occurs latest in low latitudes and in the Arctic, despite these areas steadying at very different absolute warming rates. These broad patterns are robust across multiple General Circulation Model ensembles and alternative definitions of TSC. These results indicate large regional differences in the trajectory of climate change in coming centuries. ©2019. The Authors.
Date issued
2019-04Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary SciencesJournal
Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Citation
Lickley, Megan et. al., "Time of steady climate change." Geophysical Research Letters 46, 10 (April 2019): 5445-51 doi. 10.1029/2018GL081704 ©2019 Authors
Version: Final published version
ISSN
1944-8007