Increased risk of malaria transmission with warming temperature in the Ethiopian Highlands

Abstract

The heavily populated highlands of Ethiopia are currently at low risk for malaria transmission, butglobal warming may change the risk level significantly. The inhabitants of the Ethiopian Highlands arehighly vulnerable to this potential hazard due to their lack of immunity. Here, we identify hotspotswithin the Highlands where projected warming towards the end of the 21st century will increase therisk of malaria transmission significantly. Based on projected temperature changes, we conclude thatabout a third of the region’s population and roughly 14% of its land area will become at high risk formalaria transmission within a century under the high-emissions-no-mitigation baseline scenario forfuture climate change. Our analysis combines dynamically down-scaled regional climate projections,high resolution satellite observations of temperature, and a village-scale malaria transmission modelthat was developed based on climatic, environmental, entomological, and medical data collected byour group in comprehensive multi-yearfield surveys of villages in this region. The projected impactsof global warming on malaria transmission in Africa have been controversial. We propose aframework that reconciles seemingly contradictory conclusions, and informs strategies for climateadaptation not only over the Ethiopian Highlands but broadly over Africa, where more than 90% ofmalaria deaths occur every year. ©2020