The Future of Nuclear Energy in a Carbon-Constrained World

Abstract

We summarize the findings of a new Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) study on the future of nuclear energy. In the 21st century, the world faces the novel challenge of drastically reducing emissions of greenhouse gases while simultaneously expanding energy access and economic opportunity to billions of people. We examine this challenge in the electricity sector, which has been widely identified as an early candidate for deep decarbonization. In most regions, serving the projected electricity demand in 2050 while simultaneously reducing emissions will require a mix of electrical generation assets different from the current system. Although a variety of low- or zero-carbon technologies can be employed, our analysis demonstrates the potential contribution nuclear can make as a dispatchable low-carbon technology. The least-cost portfolios in our analysis include an important share for nuclear, the magnitude of which grows significantly as its cost drops. Therefore, there are strong incentives for industry to reduce the cost of new nuclear plants, and here we identify promising approaches for achieving such cost reductions. We recommend that governments create policies that equally recognize the environmental and societal benefits of all low-carbon energy technologies. Without a balanced portfolio of dispatchable and variable energy sources, the cost and difficulty of achieving decarbonization targets increases significantly.