Reply to “Comments on ‘What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather?’”
Author(s)Sun, Y. Qiang; Zhang, Fuqing; Magnusson, Linus; Buizza, Roberto; Chen, Jan-Huey; Emanuel, Kerry Andrew; ... Show more Show less
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In their comment, Žagar and Szunyogh raised concerns about a recent study by Zhang et al. that examined the predictability limit of midlatitude weather using two up-to-date global models. Zhang et al. showed that deterministic weather forecast may, at best, be extended by 5 days, assuming we could achieve minimal initial-condition uncertainty (e.g., 10% of current operational value) with a nearly perfect model. Žagar and Szunyogh questioned the methodology and the experiments of Zhang et al. Specifically, Žagar and Szunyogh raised issues regarding the effects of model error on the growth of the forecast uncertainty. They also suggested that estimates of the predictability limit could be obtained using a simple parametric model. This reply clarifies the misunderstandings in Žagar and Szunyogh and demonstrates that experiments conducted by Zhang et al. are reasonable. In our view, the model error concern in Žagar and Szunyogh does not apply to the intrinsic predictability limit, which is the key focus of Zhang et al. and the simple parametric model described in Žagar and Szunyogh does not serve the purpose of Zhang et al.
DepartmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Lorenz Center (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
American Meteorological Society
Sun, Y. Qiang et al. "Reply to “Comments on ‘What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather?’”." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 77, 2 (February 2020): 787–793 © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
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