Emission Saving Potentials from Transition to Natural Gas Usage: A view from Four Major Emitters

Abstract

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the energy sector accounts for approximately two-thirds of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (IEA, 2014). Although there is a growing interest in renewable energy technologies, fossil fuels still contribute 80% of total primary energy demand, and around 90% of energy-related emissions come from fossil-fuel combustion (IEA, 2014). Here, we present a regional assessment for potential CO2emission savings based on the aggregate contributions from individual countries within the same region. The analysis is restricted to the Middle East region, as it has four of the world's largest oil and natural gas exporters, and holds a large bulk of fossil fuel reserves. Analysis shows that there is a strong correlation between high Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emission levels and resource-rich countries, which are considered "major emitters". Accordingly, we present a stabilization strategy under "business-as-usual" (BAU) projections through greater use of natural gas in the energy mix. Results highlight that the greatest potentials for emission reduction are tied to the contributions of four main countries, namely, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Transition to lower carbon resources such as natural gas will certainly yield greater emissions reduction, yet the contribution of this work is mainly directed towards highlighting the role of individual countries in emission reduction relative to the Middle East's 450-emission goal. In addition, typologies presented in the paper are useful as a first step towards a better understanding of policy development and energy management on a regional level.