No COVID-19 climate silver lining in the US power sector

Abstract

Recent studies conclude that the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic decreased power sector CO₂ emissions globally and in the United States. In this paper, we analyze the statistical significance of CO₂ emissions reductions in the U.S. power sector from March through December 2020. We use Gaussian process (GP) regression to assess whether CO₂ emissions reductions would have occurred with reasonable probability in the absence of COVID-19 considering uncertainty due to factors unrelated to the pandemic and adjusting for weather, seasonality, and recent emissions trends. We find that monthly CO₂ emissions reductions are only statistically significant in April and May 2020 considering hypothesis tests at 5% significance levels. Separately, we consider the potential impact of COVID-19 on coal-fired power plant retirements through 2022. We find that only a small percentage of U.S. coal power plants are at risk of retirement due to a possible COVID-19-related sustained reduction in electricity demand and prices. We observe and anticipate a return to pre-COVID-19 CO₂ emissions in the U.S. power sector.