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dc.contributor.authorChoi, Yeon-Woo
dc.contributor.authorCampbell, Deborah J
dc.contributor.authorAldridge, John C
dc.contributor.authorEltahir, Elfatih AB
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-07T15:25:50Z
dc.date.available2021-10-07T15:25:50Z
dc.date.issued2021-07
dc.date.submitted2021-01
dc.identifier.issn1432-0894
dc.identifier.issn0930-7575
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/132777
dc.description.abstractBangladesh stands out as a climate change hot spot due to its unique geography, climate, high population density, and limited adaptation capacity. Mounting evidence suggests that the country is already suffering from the effects of climate change which may get worse without aggressive action. Here, we use an ensemble of high-resolution (10 km) regional climate model simulations to project near-term change in climate extremes, mainly heat waves and intense rainfall, for the period (2021–2050). Near-term climate projections represent a valuable input for designing sound adaptation policies. Our climate projections suggest that heatwaves will become more frequent and severe in Bangladesh under the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). In particular, extremes of wet-bulb temperature (a temperature and humidity metric important in evaluating humid heat stress) in the western part of Bangladesh including Bogra, Ishurdi, and Jessore are likely to exceed the extreme danger threshold (according to U.S. National Weather Service criterion), which has rarely been observed in the current climate. The return periods of extreme heat waves are also significantly shortened across the country. In addition, country-averaged rainfall is projected to increase by about 6% during the summer months, with the largest increases (above 10%) in the eastern mountainous areas, such as Sylhet and Chittagong. Meanwhile, insignificant changes in extreme rainfall are simulated. Our results suggest that Bangladesh is particularly susceptible to climate extremes in the near future, in the form of extreme heat waves over the western part of the country.en_US
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLCen_US
dc.relation.isversionof10.1007/s00382-021-05856-zen_US
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licenseen_US
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_US
dc.sourceSpringeren_US
dc.titleNear-term regional climate change over Bangladeshen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.citationChoi, YW., Campbell, D.J., Aldridge, J.C. et al. Near-term regional climate change over Bangladesh. Clim Dyn (2021)en_US
dc.contributor.departmentParsons Laboratory for Environmental Science and Engineering (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
dc.contributor.departmentLincoln Laboratory
dc.relation.journalClimate Dynamicsen_US
dc.eprint.versionFinal published versionen_US
dc.type.urihttp://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticleen_US
eprint.statushttp://purl.org/eprint/status/PeerRevieweden_US
dc.date.updated2021-10-06T17:50:54Z
dspace.orderedauthorsChoi, Y-W; Campbell, DJ; Aldridge, JC; Eltahir, EABen_US
dspace.date.submission2021-10-06T17:50:56Z
mit.licensePUBLISHER_CC
mit.metadata.statusAuthority Work Neededen_US


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