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dc.contributor.authorNikiel, Catherine A
dc.contributor.authorEltahir, Elfatih AB
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-07T15:29:44Z
dc.date.available2021-10-07T15:29:44Z
dc.date.issued2021-12
dc.date.submitted2020-09
dc.identifier.issn2041-1723
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/132779
dc.description.abstractFor millennia the Nile supplied Egypt with more water than needed. As the population grew and the economy expanded, demand on water increased accordingly. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis to reconstruct how total demand on water outstripped supply of the Nile water in the late 1970s, starting from a surplus of about 20 km<jats:sup>3</jats:sup> per year in the 1960s leading to a deficit of about 40 km<jats:sup>3</jats:sup> per year by the late 2010s. The gap is satisfied by import of virtual water. The role of economic growth in driving per capita demand on water is quantified based on detailed analysis of water use by agriculture and other sectors. We develop and test an empirical model of water demand in Egypt that relates demand on water to growth rates in the economy and population. Looking forward, we project that within this decade of the 2020 s, under nominal scenarios of population and economic growth, Egypt is likely to import more virtual water than the water supplied by the Nile, bringing into question the historical characterization of Egypt as “the gift of the Nile”.</jats:p>en_US
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLCen_US
dc.relation.isversionof10.1038/s41467-021-24747-9en_US
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licenseen_US
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_US
dc.sourceNatureen_US
dc.titlePast and future trends of Egypt’s water consumption and its sourcesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.citationNikiel, C.A., Eltahir, E.A.B. Past and future trends of Egypt’s water consumption and its sources. Nat Commun 12, 4508 (2021)en_US
dc.contributor.departmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
dc.relation.journalNature Communicationsen_US
dc.eprint.versionFinal published versionen_US
dc.type.urihttp://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticleen_US
eprint.statushttp://purl.org/eprint/status/PeerRevieweden_US
dc.date.updated2021-10-06T17:05:20Z
dspace.orderedauthorsNikiel, CA; Eltahir, EABen_US
dspace.date.submission2021-10-06T17:05:21Z
mit.journal.volume12en_US
mit.journal.issue1en_US
mit.licensePUBLISHER_CC
mit.metadata.statusAuthority Work Neededen_US


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