Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorXu, Ran
dc.contributor.authorRahmandad, Hazhir
dc.contributor.authorGupta, Marichi
dc.contributor.authorDiGennaro, Catherine
dc.contributor.authorGhaffarzadegan, Navid
dc.contributor.authorAmini, Heresh
dc.contributor.authorJalali, Mohammad S
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-26T15:53:02Z
dc.date.available2021-10-26T15:53:02Z
dc.date.issued2021-10
dc.identifier.issn2542-5196
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/133130
dc.description.abstractBACKGROUND: Understanding how environmental factors affect SARS-CoV-2 transmission could inform global containment efforts. Despite high scientific and public interest and multiple research reports, there is currently no consensus on the association of environmental factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To address this research gap, we aimed to assess the relative risk of transmission associated with weather conditions and ambient air pollution. METHODS: In this global analysis, we adjusted for the delay between infection and detection, estimated the daily reproduction number at 3739 global locations during the COVID-19 pandemic up until late April, 2020, and investigated its associations with daily local weather conditions (ie, temperature, humidity, precipitation, snowfall, moon illumination, sunlight hours, ultraviolet index, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, and pressure data) and ambient air pollution (ie, PM2·5, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and sulphur dioxide). To account for other confounding factors, we included both location-specific fixed effects and trends, controlling for between-location differences and heterogeneities in locations' responses over time. We built confidence in our estimations through synthetic data, robustness, and sensitivity analyses, and provided year-round global projections for weather-related risk of global SARS-CoV-2 transmission. FINDINGS: Our dataset included data collected between Dec 12, 2019, and April 22, 2020. Several weather variables and ambient air pollution were associated with the spread of SARS-CoV-2 across 3739 global locations. We found a moderate, negative relationship between the estimated reproduction number and temperatures warmer than 25°C (a decrease of 3·7% [95% CI 1·9-5·4] per additional degree), a U-shaped relationship with outdoor ultraviolet exposure, and weaker positive associations with air pressure, wind speed, precipitation, diurnal temperature, sulphur dioxide, and ozone. Results were robust to multiple assumptions. Independent research building on our estimates provides strong support for the resulting projections across nations. INTERPRETATION: Warmer temperature and moderate outdoor ultraviolet exposure result in a slight reduction in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2; however, changes in weather or air pollution alone are not enough to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 with other factors having greater effects. FUNDING: None.en_US
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier BVen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00202-3en_US
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs Licenseen_US
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/en_US
dc.sourceElsevieren_US
dc.titleWeather, air pollution, and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: a global analysisen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.citationRahmandad, Hazhir et al. "Weather, air pollution, and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: a global analysis." The Lancet Planetary Health 5, 10 (October 2021): e671-e680. © 2021 The Author(s)en_US
dc.contributor.departmentSloan School of Managementen_US
dc.relation.journalThe Lancet Planetary Healthen_US
dc.eprint.versionFinal published versionen_US
dc.type.urihttp://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticleen_US
eprint.statushttp://purl.org/eprint/status/PeerRevieweden_US
dc.date.updated2021-10-26T13:30:36Z
dspace.orderedauthorsXu, R; Rahmandad, H; Gupta, M; DiGennaro, C; Ghaffarzadegan, N; Amini, H; Jalali, MSen_US
dspace.date.submission2021-10-26T13:30:41Z
mit.journal.volume5en_US
mit.journal.issue10en_US
mit.licensePUBLISHER_CC
mit.metadata.statusCompleteen_US


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record