Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets

Abstract

Abstract Many approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several causal relations among biophysical, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects are usually not taken into account. We investigate how assumptions about these four aspects affect agricultural markets, food supply, consumer well-being, and land use at global level by deploying a large-scale socioeconomic model of the global economy with detailed representation of the agricultural sector. We find global welfare impacts several times larger when climate impacts all crops and all livestock compared to a scenario with impacts limited to major crops. At the regional level, food budget can decrease by 10 to 25% in developing countries, challenging food security. The role of land area expansion as a major source of adaptation is highlighted. Climate impacts on crop yields from site-based process crop models generate more challenging socioeconomic outcomes than those from GGCMs. We conclude that the agricultural research community should expand efforts to estimate climate impacts on many more crops and livestock. Also, careful comparison of the GGCMs and traditional site-based process crop models is needed to understand their major implications for agricultural and food markets.