Antarctic Radiative and Temperature Responses to a Doubling of CO 2

Abstract

Greenhouse gases (GHGs), including carbon dioxide (urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl62786:grl62786-math-0001), impact global and local outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). The Antarctic is known for its near-surface temperature inversion, where the addition of GHGs can lead to increased OLR during all but the winter months. These changes in OLR, however, are unable to explain modeled surface warming due to changes in GHGs across central Antarctica. Here we develop a simple explanation showing why adding urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl62786:grl62786-math-0002 always warms the surface, and allowing an estimation of the change in surface temperature due to a change in urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl62786:grl62786-math-0003 concentration based on the initial surface temperature. We develop a radiative-advective-turbulent single-column model based on observed temperatures for explicit comparisons between our estimations and model equilibrium behavior. We confirm that Antarctic surface temperatures warm as GHG concentrations increase, and find that this response is best explained through the surface greenhouse effect rather than that of the top of atmosphere (TOA).