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dc.contributor.authorChoi, Yeon-Woo
dc.contributor.authorEltahir, Elfatih AB
dc.date.accessioned2023-03-14T17:32:48Z
dc.date.available2023-03-14T17:32:48Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/148545
dc.description.abstract<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>For millennia, Mesopotamia was blessed by enough water supplied by the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. However, the dwindling freshwater resource is no longer enough. In the future, climate change coupled with a growing population could considerably exacerbate the current water deficit. Based on simulations by carefully selected global and regional climate models, we conclude that these river basins may possibly face further water shortages (mainly due to a reduction in spring-season precipitation) in the next few decades (2021–50) under a scenario of high emissions of greenhouse gases. However, there is no consensus among models regarding these near-term (2021–50) projections of change in precipitation, and society is likely to face the challenge of how to prepare for this uncertain future. The story is different for the late decades of this century: we project, with significantly more confidence, a robust decrease in wet-season (winter to spring) precipitation over the headwaters of these river basins, worsening future water deficits and implying a century-long drying trend over Mesopotamia. Possible physical mechanisms are proposed and discussed. As global warming progresses, higher sea level pressure, centered on the Mediterranean Sea, will likely make upstream storms less frequent and weaker, leading to drying over Mesopotamia. Further, projections show a poleward migration of the fewer Mediterranean storm tracks, decreasing the frequency of storms that penetrate into Mesopotamia. Implementing a global net-zero carbon emissions policy by midcentury could mitigate the severity of the projected droughts in this region.</jats:p>en_US
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorological Societyen_US
dc.relation.isversionof10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0268.1en_US
dc.rightsArticle is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.en_US
dc.sourceAmerican Meteorological Society (AMS)en_US
dc.titleUncertainty in future projections of precipitation decline over Mesopotamiaen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.citationChoi, Yeon-Woo and Eltahir, Elfatih AB. 2022. "Uncertainty in future projections of precipitation decline over Mesopotamia." Journal of Climate, 36 (4).
dc.contributor.departmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineeringen_US
dc.relation.journalJournal of Climateen_US
dc.eprint.versionFinal published versionen_US
dc.type.urihttp://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticleen_US
eprint.statushttp://purl.org/eprint/status/PeerRevieweden_US
dc.date.updated2023-03-14T17:15:46Z
dspace.orderedauthorsChoi, Y-W; Eltahir, EABen_US
dspace.date.submission2023-03-14T17:15:51Z
mit.journal.volume36en_US
mit.journal.issue4en_US
mit.licensePUBLISHER_POLICY
mit.metadata.statusAuthority Work and Publication Information Neededen_US


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