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dc.contributor.authorDelacrétaz, Nathan
dc.contributor.authorLanz, Bruno
dc.contributor.authorDelju, Amir H.
dc.contributor.authorPiguet, Etienne
dc.contributor.authorRebetez, Martine
dc.date.accessioned2023-06-26T17:20:05Z
dc.date.available2023-06-26T17:20:05Z
dc.date.issued2023-06-20
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/150941
dc.description.abstractAbstract Rural populations are particularly exposed to increasing weather variability, notably through agriculture. In this paper, we exploit longitudinal data for Turkish provinces from 2008 to 2018 together with precipitation records over more than 30 years to quantify how variability in a standardized precipitation index (SPI) affects out-migration as an adaptation mechanism. Doing so, we document the role of three potential causal channels: per capita income, agricultural output, and local conflicts. Our results show that negative SPI shocks (droughts) are associated with higher out-migration in rural provinces. A mediated-moderator approach further suggests that changes in per capita income account for more than one quarter of the direct effect of droughts on out-migration, whereas agricultural output is only relevant for provinces in the upper quartile of crop production. Finally, we find evidence that local conflict fatalities increase with drought and trigger out-migration, although this channel is distinct from the direct effect of SPI shocks on out-migration.en_US
dc.publisherSpringer Netherlandsen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-023-00423-6en_US
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attributionen_US
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_US
dc.sourceSpringer Netherlandsen_US
dc.titleImpacts of rainfall shocks on out-migration are moderated more by per capita income than by agricultural output in Türkiyeen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.citationPopulation and Environment. 2023 Jun 20;45(3):12en_US
dc.contributor.departmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change
dc.identifier.mitlicensePUBLISHER_CC
dc.eprint.versionFinal published versionen_US
dc.type.urihttp://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticleen_US
eprint.statushttp://purl.org/eprint/status/PeerRevieweden_US
dc.date.updated2023-06-25T03:11:01Z
dc.language.rfc3066en
dc.rights.holderThe Author(s)
dspace.embargo.termsN
dspace.date.submission2023-06-25T03:11:01Z
mit.licensePUBLISHER_CC
mit.metadata.statusAuthority Work and Publication Information Neededen_US


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