Finding Sprawl Factors and Pirate Development: Based on Spatial Analysis of Population Grid Changes from 2014 to 2022 in SMA, South Korea

Abstract

This comprehensive study explores urban sprawl in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), emphasizing its rising intensity and complexity despite previous public-led planning efforts. The study aims to visualize the spatial patterns of sprawl and identify influencing factors through spatial regression analysis using grid-based population data created from actual population distributions. This approach fills a gap in the existing literature by moving beyond administrative-level analyses prone to ecological fallacies. This study scrutinizes the dynamics of population change in Seoul Metropolitan Areas (SMAs) in Korea over a decade, focusing on the predatory aspect of urban sprawl. Using grid-based population data and spatial regression analysis, the study finds that population growth is concentrated in unplanned areas with high development benefits. Three key hypotheses were examined: (1) Areas with high development potential, measured through factors like land prices and development plans, attract predatory development; (2) Improved transportation infrastructure encourages population inflow; (3) Non-urban land use, especially bare land, attracts population growth. The results offer important policy implications, particularly for preparing areas with low land prices and improving transportation infrastructures for future population influxes. Monitoring is particularly crucial in areas where development plans are already in place or where there is a high percentage of bare land.