Travel distance, frequency of return, and the spread of disease

Abstract

Human mobility is a key driver of infectious disease spread. Recent literature has uncovered a clear pattern underlying the complexity of human mobility in cities: 𝑟⋅𝑓, the product of distance traveled r and frequency of return f per user to a given location, is invariant across space. This paper asks whether the invariant 𝑟⋅𝑓 also serves as a driver for epidemic spread, so that the risk associated with human movement can be modeled by a unifying variable 𝑟⋅𝑓. We use two large-scale datasets of individual human mobility to show that there is in fact a simple relation between r and f and both speed and spatial dispersion of disease spread. This discovery could assist in modeling spread of disease and inform travel policies in future epidemics—based not only on travel distance r but also on frequency of return f.