Techno-Economic Analysis of Decarbonized Backup Power Systems Using Scenario-Based Stochastic Optimization

Abstract

first_pagesettingsOrder Article Reprints Open AccessArticle Techno-Economic Analysis of Decarbonized Backup Power Systems Using Scenario-Based Stochastic Optimization by Jonas Schweiger 1,2,*ORCID andRuaridh Macdonald 1ORCID 1 MIT Energy Initiative, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 50 Ames St., Cambridge, MA 02142, USA 2 College of Management of Technology, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Station 5, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed. Energies 2025, 18(16), 4388; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18164388 Submission received: 14 July 2025 / Revised: 4 August 2025 / Accepted: 14 August 2025 / Published: 18 August 2025 (This article belongs to the Section C: Energy Economics and Policy) Downloadkeyboard_arrow_down Browse Figures Versions Notes Abstract In the context of growing concerns about power disruptions, grid reliability and the need for decarbonization, this study evaluates a broad range of clean backup power systems (BPSs) to replace traditional emergency diesel generators. A scenario-based stochastic optimization framework using actual load profiles and outage probabilities is proposed to assess the most promising options from a pool of 27 technologies. This framework allows a comparison of the cost effectiveness and environmental impact of individual technologies and hybrid BPSs across various scenarios. The results highlight the trade-off between total annual system cost and emissions. Significant emission reductions can be achieved at moderate cost increases but deep decarbonization levels incur higher costs. Primary and secondary batteries are included in optimal clean fuel-based systems across all decarbonization levels, combining cost-effective power delivery and long-term storage benefits. The findings highlight the often-overlooked importance of fuel replacement on both emissions and costs. Among the assessed technologies, ammonia generators and hydrogen fuel cells combined with secondary iron–air batteries emerge as cost-effective solutions for achieving decarbonization goals. To ensure a broad range of applicability, the study outlines the impact of emergency fuel purchases, varying demand patterns and demand response options on the optimal BPS. The research findings are valuable for optimizing the design of clean BPSs to economically meet the needs of many facility types and decarbonization targets.