China’s Potential Lessons from Ukraine for Conflict over Taiwan

Abstract

What lessons for a conflict over Taiwan might China be learning from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the global responses to the war? And what are the strategic implications of these lessons? To answer these questions, I examine how the war in Ukraine may be shaping China’s assessments of the political, military and economic costs of military action against Taiwan, and how these assessments may influence China’s decision to use force against Taiwan.