The end of MAD? Technological innovation and the future of nuclear retaliatory capabilities

Abstract

This article motivates the special issue, explaining the new debate over whether emerging technologies – including small satellites, machine learning, cyber weapons, and quantum technologies – will enable major powers to undermine each others’ nuclear retaliatory capabilities. The first article analyzes key relevant emerging technologies. Following articles explore how emerging technologies will influence the vulnerability of mobile missiles, ballistic missile submarines, and nuclear command-and-control; and the ability of missile defenses against intercontinental range missiles. The final article explores China’s views on the requirements of nuclear deterrence. Overall, the articles suggest that U.S. prospects for achieving a damage-limitation capability are poor and declining.