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dc.contributor.authorAbadie, Alberto
dc.contributor.authorDiamond, Alexis
dc.contributor.authorHainmueller, Jens
dc.date.accessioned2010-10-21T15:54:32Z
dc.date.available2010-10-21T15:54:32Z
dc.date.issued2010-06
dc.date.submitted2009-06
dc.identifier.issn0162-1459
dc.identifier.issn1537-274X
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/59447
dc.description.abstractBuilding on an idea in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), this article investi- gates the application of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies. We discuss the advantages of these methods and apply them to study the ef- fects of Proposition 99, a large-scale tobacco control program that California implemented in 1988. We demonstrate that following Proposition 99 tobacco consumption fell markedly in California relative to a comparable synthetic con- trol region. We estimate that by the year 2000 annual per capita cigarette sales in California were about 26 packs lower than what they would have been in the absence of Proposition 99. Using new inferential methods proposed in this ar- ticle, we demonstrate the signi¯cance of our estimates. Given that many policy interventions and events of interest in social sciences take place at an aggregate level (countries, regions, cities, etc.) and affect a small number of aggregate units, the potential applicability of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies is very large, especially in situations where traditional regression methods are not appropriate.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Science Foundation (U.S.) (grant SES-0350645)en_US
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherAmerican Statistical Associationen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1198/jasa.2009.ap08746en_US
dc.rightsAttribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 Unporteden_US
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/en_US
dc.sourceMIT web domainen_US
dc.titleSynthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Programen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.citationAlberto Abadie, Alexis Diamond, Jens Hainmueller. Journal of the American Statistical Association. June 1, 2010, 105(490): 493-505. doi:10.1198/jasa.2009.ap08746.en_US
dc.contributor.departmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Political Scienceen_US
dc.contributor.approverHainmueller, Jens
dc.contributor.mitauthorHainmueller, Jens
dc.relation.journalJournal of the American Statistical Associationen_US
dc.eprint.versionAuthor's final manuscript
dc.type.urihttp://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticleen_US
eprint.statushttp://purl.org/eprint/status/PeerRevieweden_US
dspace.orderedauthorsAbadie, Albertoen
mit.licenseOPEN_ACCESS_POLICYen_US


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