Scenario Planning in Dynamic Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration
Author(s)Hastings, Daniel E.; Roberts, Christopher James; Richards, Matthew G.; Ross, Adam Michael; Rhodes, Donna H.
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The long time scales associated with complex system design and operation necessitate front-end systems engineering methodologies that enable consideration of alternative futures. This paper advances scenario planning techniques through a parameterization and ordering of potential future contexts and stakeholder expectations (e.g., articulated system attributes, available technology, funding levels, and supporting infrastructures). After surveying existing approaches for scenario planning, a methodology for specifying and analyzing large numbers of alternative system time lines is presented. A satellite radar case study is used to motivate and illustrate the value of this approach. Benefits of the methodology include: (1) broader and more rigorous consideration of alternative future needs, contexts, and time lines, (2) identification of gaps in traditionally-derived scenario sets, (3) identification of passively value-robust system alternatives, and (4) providing a basis for evaluating system evolution strategies that enable sustainment of value delivery across potential time lines.
Departmentdelete; Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Technology, Policy, and Industrial Development; Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division
3rd Annual IEEE Systems Conference, 2009
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Roberts, C.J. et al. “Scenario planning in dynamic multi-attribute tradespace exploration.” Systems Conference, 2009 3rd Annual IEEE. 2009. 366-371. ©2009 IEEE.
Final published version
INSPEC Accession Number: 10574462