Metrics for Evaluating Survivability in Dynamic Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration

Abstract

Survivability engineering is critical for minimizing the impact of disturbances to the operation of space systems. To improve the evaluation of survivability during conceptual design, metrics are proposed for the assessment of survivability as a dynamic, continuous, and path-dependent system property. Two of these metrics, time-weighted average utility loss and threshold availability, are then incorporated into a tradespace study on the survivability of future space tug vehicles to orbital debris. A value-based design approach, dynamic multi-attribute tradespace exploration, is taken to evaluate survivability based on the relationship between stochastic space tug utility trajectories and changing stakeholder expectations across nominal and disturbed environmental states. Results of the tradespace study show that moderate levels of bumper shielding and access to an on-orbit servicing infrastructure benefit space tugs with large exposed cross-sectional areas, whereas active collision avoidance only delivers value to extremely-risk-averse decision-makers. Time-weighted average utility loss and threshold availability are found to be discriminating metrics for navigating survivability tradespaces of thousands of design alternatives.