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dc.contributor.authorKnutson, Thomas R.
dc.contributor.authorMcBride, John L.
dc.contributor.authorChan, Johnny
dc.contributor.authorEmanuel, Kerry Andrew
dc.contributor.authorHolland, Greg
dc.contributor.authorLandsea, Chris
dc.contributor.authorHeld, Isaac M.
dc.contributor.authorKossin, James P.
dc.contributor.authorSrivastava, A. K.
dc.contributor.authorSugi, Masato
dc.date.accessioned2011-04-28T19:57:54Z
dc.date.available2011-04-28T19:57:54Z
dc.date.issued2010-02
dc.date.submitted2010-01
dc.identifier.issn1752-0908
dc.identifier.issn1752-0894
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/62558
dc.description.abstractWhether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate — and if so, how — has been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results. Large amplitude fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones greatly complicate both the detection of long-term trends and their attribution to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Trend detection is further impeded by substantial limitations in the availability and quality of global historical records of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre. For all cyclone parameters, projected changes for individual basins show large variations between different modelling studies.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipWest Australian Government Indian Ocean Climate Initiativeen_US
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherNature Publishing Groupen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1038/NGEO779en_US
dc.rightsArticle is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.en_US
dc.rights.urien_US
dc.sourceProf. Emanuel via Chris Sherratten_US
dc.titleTropical Cyclones and Climate Changeen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.citationKnutson, Thomas R. et al. “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change.” Nature Geosci 3.3 (2010) : 157-163.en_US
dc.contributor.departmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciencesen_US
dc.contributor.approverEmanuel, Kerry
dc.contributor.mitauthorEmanuel, Kerry Andrew
dc.relation.journalNature Geoscienceen_US
dc.eprint.versionAuthor's final manuscripten_US
dc.type.urihttp://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticleen_US
eprint.statushttp://purl.org/eprint/status/PeerRevieweden_US
dspace.orderedauthorsKnutson, Thomas R.; McBride, John L.; Chan, Johnny; Emanuel, Kerry; Holland, Greg; Landsea, Chris; Held, Isaac; Kossin, James P.; Srivastava, A. K.; Sugi, Masatoen
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082
mit.licensePUBLISHER_POLICYen_US


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