Propagating Uncertainty in Solar Panel Performance for Life Cycle Modeling in Early Stage Design

Abstract

One of the challenges in accurately applying metrics for life cycle assessment lies in accounting for both irreducible and inherent uncertainties in how a design will perform under real world conditions. This paper presents a preliminary study that compares two strategies, one simulation-based and one set-based, for propagating uncertainty in a system. These strategies for uncertainty propagation are then aggregated. This work is conducted in the context of an amorphous photovoltaic (PV) panel, using data gathered from the National Solar Radiation Database, as well as realistic data collected from an experimental hardware setup specifically for this study. Results show that the influence of various sources of uncertainty can vary widely, and in particular that solar radiation intensity is a more significant source of uncertainty than the efficiency of a PV panel. This work also shows both set-based and simulation-based approaches have limitations and must be applied thoughtfully to prevent unrealistic results. Finally, it was found that aggregation of the two uncertainty propagation methods provided faster results than either method alone.