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dc.contributor.authorGriffiths, Thomas L.
dc.contributor.authorTenenbaum, Joshua B.
dc.date.accessioned2012-06-01T18:10:50Z
dc.date.available2012-06-01T18:10:50Z
dc.date.issued2011-11
dc.identifier.issn0022-1015
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/70990
dc.description.abstractredicting the future is a basic problem that people have to solve every day and a component of planning, decision making, memory, and causal reasoning. In this article, we present 5 experiments testing a Bayesian model of predicting the duration or extent of phenomena from their current state. This Bayesian model indicates how people should combine prior knowledge with observed data. Comparing this model with human judgments provides constraints on possible algorithms that people might use to predict the future. In the experiments, we examine the effects of multiple observations, the effects of prior knowledge, and the difference between independent and dependent observations, using both descriptions and direct experience of prediction problems. The results indicate that people integrate prior knowledge and observed data in a way that is consistent with our Bayesian model, ruling out some simple heuristics for predicting the future. We suggest some mechanisms that might lead to more complete algorithmic-level accounts.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipMitsubishi Electronic Research Laboratoriesen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipJohn Winthrop Hackett Studentshipen_US
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherAmerican Psychological Associationen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0024899en_US
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0en_US
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/en_US
dc.sourceOther University Web Domainen_US
dc.titlePredicting the Future as Bayesian Inference: People Combine Prior Knowledge With Observations When Estimating Duration and Extenten_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.citationGriffiths, Thomas L., and Joshua B. Tenenbaum. “Predicting the Future as Bayesian Inference: People Combine Prior Knowledge with Observations When Estimating Duration and Extent.” Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 140.4 (2011): 725–743. Web.en_US
dc.contributor.departmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciencesen_US
dc.contributor.approverTenenbaum, Joshua B.
dc.contributor.mitauthorTenenbaum, Joshua B.
dc.relation.journalJournal of Experimental Psychologyen_US
dc.eprint.versionAuthor's final manuscripten_US
dc.type.urihttp://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticleen_US
eprint.statushttp://purl.org/eprint/status/PeerRevieweden_US
dspace.orderedauthorsGriffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.en
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1925-2035
mit.licenseOPEN_ACCESS_POLICYen_US


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