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dc.contributor.authorKlima, Kelly
dc.contributor.authorMorgan, M. Granger
dc.contributor.authorGrossmann, Iris
dc.contributor.authorEmanuel, Kerry Andrew
dc.date.accessioned2012-12-13T21:44:07Z
dc.date.available2012-12-13T21:44:07Z
dc.date.issued2011-04
dc.identifier.issn0013-936X
dc.identifier.issn1520-5851
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/75729
dc.description.abstractRecent dramatic increases in damages caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) and improved understanding of TC physics have led DHS to fund research on intentional hurricane modification. We present a decision analytic assessment of whether it is potentially cost-effective to attempt to lower the wind speed of TCs approaching South Florida by reducing sea surface temperatures with wind-wave pumps. Using historical data on hurricanes approaching South Florida, we develop prior probabilities of how storms might evolve. The effects of modification are estimated using a modern TC model. The FEMA HAZUS-MH MR3 damage model and census data on the value of property at risk are used to estimate expected economic losses. We compare wind damages after storm modification with damages after implementing hardening strategies protecting buildings. We find that if it were feasible and properly implemented, modification could reduce net losses from an intense storm more than hardening structures. However, hardening provides “fail safe” protection for average storms that might not be achieved if the only option were modification. The effect of natural variability is larger than that of either strategy. Damage from storm surge is modest in the scenario studied but might be abated by modification.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipCenter for Climate and Energy Decision Making (SES-0345798)en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipCenter for Climate and Energy Decision Making (SES-0949710)en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipCarnegie Mellon Universityen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Science Foundation (U.S.)en_US
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherAmerican Chemical Societyen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es104336uen_US
dc.rightsArticle is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.en_US
dc.sourceProf. Emanuel via Chris Sherratten_US
dc.titleDoes It Make Sense To Modify Tropical Cyclones? A Decision-Analytic Assessmenten_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.citationKlima, Kelly et al. “Does It Make Sense To Modify Tropical Cyclones? A Decision-Analytic Assessment.” Environmental Science & Technology 45.10 (2011): 4242–4248. Web.en_US
dc.contributor.departmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciencesen_US
dc.contributor.approverEmanuel, Kerry
dc.contributor.mitauthorEmanuel, Kerry Andrew
dc.relation.journalEnvironmental Science and Technologyen_US
dc.eprint.versionAuthor's final manuscripten_US
dc.type.urihttp://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticleen_US
eprint.statushttp://purl.org/eprint/status/PeerRevieweden_US
dspace.orderedauthorsKlima, Kelly; Morgan, M. Granger; Grossmann, Iris; Emanuel, Kerryen
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082
mit.licensePUBLISHER_POLICYen_US
mit.metadata.statusComplete


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