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dc.contributor.authorGao, Xiang
dc.contributor.authorForest, Chris E.
dc.contributor.authorAwadalla, Sirein
dc.contributor.authorFarmer, William
dc.contributor.authorSchlosser, Adam
dc.contributor.authorStrzepek, Kenneth Marc
dc.contributor.authorSokolov, Andrei P.
dc.date.accessioned2013-12-09T17:54:23Z
dc.date.available2013-12-09T17:54:23Z
dc.date.issued2013-05
dc.date.submitted2012-08
dc.identifier.issn0894-8755
dc.identifier.issn1520-0442
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/82890
dc.description.abstractThe growing need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to climate change calls for increased capability in climate projections: specifically, the quantification of the likelihood of regional outcomes and the representation of their uncertainty. Herein, the authors present a technique that extends the latitudinal projections of the 2D atmospheric model of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) by applying longitudinally resolved patterns from observations, and from climate model projections archived from exercises carried out for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The method maps the IGSM zonal means across longitude using a set of transformation coefficients, and this approach is demonstrated in application to near-surface air temperature and precipitation, for which high-quality observational datasets and model simulations of climate change are available. The current climatology of the transformation coefficients is observationally based. To estimate how these coefficients may alter with climate, the authors characterize the climate models’ spatial responses, relative to their zonal mean, from transient increases in trace-gas concentrations and then normalize these responses against their corresponding transient global temperature responses. This procedure allows for the construction of metaensembles of regional climate outcomes, combining the ensembles of the MIT IGSM—which produce global and latitudinal climate projections, with uncertainty, under different global climate policy scenarios—with regionally resolved patterns from the archived IPCC climate model projections. This hybridization of the climate model longitudinal projections with the global and latitudinal patterns projected by the IGSM can, in principle, be applied to any given state or flux variable that has the sufficient observational and model-based information.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipUnited States. Dept. of Energy (Abrupt Climate Change Program Grant DE-FG02-08ER61937)en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Changeen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipUnited States. Dept. of Energy. Office of Science (DE-FG02-94ER61937)en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipUnited States. Environmental Protection Agencyen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipElectric Power Research Instituteen_US
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorological Societyen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00730.1en_US
dc.rightsArticle is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.en_US
dc.sourceAmerican Meteorological Societyen_US
dc.titleQuantifying the Likelihood of Regional Climate Change: A Hybridized Approachen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.citationSchlosser, C. Adam, Xiang Gao, Kenneth Strzepek, Andrei Sokolov, Chris E. Forest, Sirein Awadalla, and William Farmer. “Quantifying the Likelihood of Regional Climate Change: A Hybridized Approach.” Journal of Climate 26, no. 10 (May 2013): 3394-3414. © 2013 American Meteorological Societyen_US
dc.contributor.departmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Scienceen_US
dc.contributor.mitauthorSchlosser, Adamen_US
dc.contributor.mitauthorGao, Xiangen_US
dc.contributor.mitauthorStrzepek, Kenneth Marcen_US
dc.contributor.mitauthorSokolov, Andrei P.en_US
dc.contributor.mitauthorAwadalla, Sireinen_US
dc.relation.journalJournal of Climateen_US
dc.eprint.versionFinal published versionen_US
dc.type.urihttp://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticleen_US
eprint.statushttp://purl.org/eprint/status/PeerRevieweden_US
dspace.orderedauthorsSchlosser, C. Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Sokolov, Andrei; Forest, Chris E.; Awadalla, Sirein; Farmer, Williamen_US
mit.licensePUBLISHER_POLICYen_US
mit.metadata.statusComplete


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