Loss bounds for uncertain transition probabilities in Markov decision processes

Abstract

We analyze losses resulting from uncertain transition probabilities in Markov decision processes with bounded nonnegative rewards. We assume that policies are precomputed using exact dynamic programming with the estimated transition probabilities, but the system evolves according to different, true transition probabilities. Given a bound on the total variation error of estimated transition probability distributions, we derive upper bounds on the loss of expected total reward. The approach analyzes the growth of errors incurred by stepping backwards in time while precomputing value functions, which requires bounding a multilinear program. Loss bounds are given for the finite horizon undiscounted, finite horizon discounted, and infinite horizon discounted cases, and a tight example is shown.