Making Business Predictions by Combining Human and Machine Intelligence in Prediction Markets
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Malone_Making Business.pdf
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Author(s)
Nagar, Yiftach
Malone, Thomas W.
Date Issued
December 2011
Journal
Proceedings of the Thirty Second International Conference on Information Systems
Publisher
Association for Information Systems
Citation
Nagar, Yiftach, and Thomas Malone. "Making Business Predictions by Combining Human and Machine Intelligence in Prediction Markets" (December 5, 2011). ICIS 2011 Proceedings. Paper 20.
Version
Author's final manuscript
Abstract
Computers can use vast amounts of data to make predictions that are often more accurate than those by human experts. Yet, humans are more adept at processing unstructured information and at recognizing unusual circumstances and their consequences. Can we combine predictions from humans and machines to get predictions that are better than either could do alone? We used prediction markets to combine predictions from groups of people and artificial intelligence agents. We found that the combined predictions were both more accurate and more robust than those made by groups of only people or only machines. This combined approach may be especially useful in situations where patterns are difficult to discern, where data are difficult to codify, or where sudden changes occur unexpectedly.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Collective Intelligence
Sloan School of Management
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Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike
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DOI of Published Version
http://aisel.aisnet.org/icis2011/proceedings/knowledge/20/
