Forecasting long-term gas production from shale

Abstract

Oil and natural gas from deep shale formations are transforming the United States economy and its energy outlook. Back in 2005, the US Energy Information Administration published projections of United States natural gas supply that stressed the need to develop an import infrastructure (1): by 2025, imports would account for almost one-third of United States consumption. When we compare those forecasts with the current ones to 2040 (Fig. 1) (2), it is inevitable to feel that a disruptive technology has emerged since. Natural gas consumption is expected to increase significantly over the next three decades, with strong demand growth from the electricity generation and industrial sectors. However, the United States will probably become a net exporter of gas before 2020, increasing domestic production by 44% over the projection period.