Hydrology and Glaciers in the Upper Indus Basin

Abstract

Examines the state of the science associated with the snow and ice hydrology in the Upper Indus Basin (IUB), reviewing the literature and data available on the present and projected role of glaciers, snow fields, and stream flow. Considerable speculation but little analysis exists concerning the importance of glaciers in the volume and timing of flow in the Indus River and its tributaries, as well as on the potential impact of climate change on these rivers. A simple model estimates that glacier runoff contributes approximately 18 percent of the total flow, making melt water from the winter snowpack the most probable source for a majority of the remaining 82 percent, and leaving future runoff regimes to be determined primarily by changes in winter precipitation and summer temperatures. To improve the hydrologic predictability of the UIB requires major investment in snow and ice hydrology monitoring stations, further scientific research, and forecasting.