Modeling Water, Climate, Agriculture, and the Economy

Abstract

Describes two models used in the integrated modeling framework designed to study water, climate, agriculture and the economy in Pakistan's Indus Basin: (1) the Indus Basin Model Revised (IBMR-1012), a hydro-economic optimization model that takes a variety of inputs (such as agronomic information, irrigation system data, and water inflows) to generate the optimal crop production across the provinces (subject to a variety of physical and political constraints) for every month of the year; and (2) the Computable General Equilibrium Model, which includes 49 economic activities and 48 commodities—plus the quantities and prices of agricultural inputs and agricultural industries beyond crop production—and differentiates across 19 types of households by farm size, tenancy, and poverty level to give detailed insights into social impacts. The IBMR and CGE models have not been jointly used to date, and interesting analytical challenges arise in linking them, but potential linkages could prove beneficial.