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Future Climate Scenarios for the Indus Basin

Author(s)
Yu, Winston; Yang, Yi-Chen; Savitsky, Andre; Alford, Donald; Brown, Casey; Wescoat, James; Debowicz, Dario; Robinson, Sherman; ... Show more Show less
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Abstract
Examines the literature and available data on hydroclimatic variability and change on the Indus Basin plains, comparing historical fluctuations in climatic and hydrologic variables and reviewing scenarios of climate change derived from general circulation models (GCMs), including the generation of future scenarios of changing snow and ice melt in the Upper Indus Basin (IUB). Historical trends show statistically significant increasing temperatures and annual precipitation over the last century, and the general findings from a wide range of general circulation model (GCM) outputs show agreement among models regarding continued increases in temperature. Models regarding changes in precipitation (both in magnitude and direction) do not agree, but indicators do show a general trend in increased precipitation during the summer and a decrease during the winter, suggesting the primary impact on the UIB could be a shift in the timing of peak runoff and not a major change in annual volume.
Date issued
2013-04
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/90256
Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Architecture
Journal
The Indus Basin of Pakistan: The Impacts of Climate Risks on Water and Agriculture
Publisher
The World Bank
Citation
Yu, Winston, Yi-Chen Yang, Andre Savitsky, Donald Alford, Casey Brown, James Wescoat, Dario Debowicz, and Sherman Robinson. “Future Climate Scenarios for the Indus Basin.” The Impacts of Climate Risks on Water and Agriculture (April 18, 2013): 77–93. © International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank
Version: Final published version
ISBN
978-0-8213-9874-6
978-0-8213-9875-3

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