Sensitivity and Scenario Results

Abstract

Presents the results of various scenarios using models used to study water, climate, agriculture and the economy in Pakistan's Indus Basin, and discusses the policy and investment implications. The water allocations per the 1991 Provincial Accord and within provinces remain the most critical constraint. Relaxing the Accord constraint, and allowing optimal economic allocation between and within provinces, would enhance the ability to manage extreme events by more reliably meeting system-wide demands. A plausible range of climate changes within the next 80 years could see gross domestic product (GDP), Ag-GDP, and household income decrease by 1.1, 5.1, and 2.0 percent, respectively, on an annual basis. Improvements to system-wide efficiency, construction of new storage, and investments in agriculture technologies to increase crop yield could increase production, but without specific interventions, environmental considerations, such as flow to the sea, changes in depth to groundwater, and the overall salinity situation, are projected to worsen.