Equilibrium Tropical Cyclone Size in an Idealized State of Axisymmetric Radiative–Convective Equilibrium

Abstract

Tropical cyclone size remains an unsolved problem in tropical meteorology, yet size plays a significant role in modulating damage. This work employs the Bryan cloud model (CM1) to systematically explore the sensitivity of the structure of an axisymmetric tropical cyclone at statistical equilibrium to the set of relevant model, initial, and environmental external parameters. The analysis is performed in a highly idealized state of radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) governed by only four thermodynamic parameters, which are shown to modulate the storm structure primarily via modulation of the potential intensity.

Using dimensional analysis, the authors find that the equilibrium radial wind profile is primarily a function of a single nondimensional parameter given by the ratio of the storm radial length scale to the parameterized eddy radial length scale. The former is found to be the ratio of the potential intensity to the Coriolis parameter, matching the prediction for the “natural” storm length scale embedded within prevailing axisymmetric tropical cyclone theory; the Rossby deformation radius is shown not to be fundamental. Beyond this primary scaling, a second nondimensional parameter representing the nondimensional Ekman suction velocity is found to modulate the far outer wind field. Implications of the primary nondimensional parameter are discussed, including the critical role of effective turbulence in modulating inner-core structure and new insight into empirical estimates of the radial mixing length.