dc.contributor.author | Siam, Mohamed Salah | |
dc.contributor.author | Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2015-04-02T17:41:10Z | |
dc.date.available | 2015-04-02T17:41:10Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2015-03 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2015-01 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1607-7938 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/96342 | |
dc.description.abstract | This study analyzes extensive data sets collected during the twentieth century and defines four modes of natural variability in the flow of the Nile River, identifying a new significant potential for improving predictability of floods and droughts. Previous studies have identified a significant teleconnection between the Nile flow and the eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explains about 25% of the interannual variability in the Nile flow. Here, this study identifies a region in the southern Indian Ocean, with a similarly strong teleconnection to the Nile flow. Sea surface temperature (SST) in the region (50–80° E and 25–35° S) explains 28% of the interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River and, when combined with the ENSO index, the explained variability of the flow of the Nile River increases to 44%. In addition, during those years with anomalous SST conditions in both oceans, this study estimates that indices of the SSTs in the Pacific and Indian oceans can collectively explain up to 84% of the interannual variability in the flow of the Nile. Building on these findings, this study uses the classical Bayesian theorem to develop a new hybrid forecasting algorithm that predicts the Nile flow based on global model predictions of indices of the SST in the eastern Pacific and southern Indian oceans. | en_US |
dc.language.iso | en_US | |
dc.publisher | Copernicus GmbH | en_US |
dc.relation.isversionof | http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1181-2015 | en_US |
dc.rights | Creative Commons Attribution | en_US |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ | en_US |
dc.source | Copernicus Publications | en_US |
dc.title | Explaining and forecasting interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River | en_US |
dc.type | Article | en_US |
dc.identifier.citation | Siam, M. S., and E. A. B. Eltahir. “Explaining and Forecasting Interannual Variability in the Flow of the Nile River.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 19, no. 3 (2015): 1181–1192. | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | Parsons Laboratory for Environmental Science and Engineering (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) | en_US |
dc.contributor.mitauthor | Siam, Mohamed Salah | en_US |
dc.contributor.mitauthor | Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. | en_US |
dc.relation.journal | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences | en_US |
dc.eprint.version | Final published version | en_US |
dc.type.uri | http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle | en_US |
eprint.status | http://purl.org/eprint/status/PeerReviewed | en_US |
dspace.orderedauthors | Siam, M. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B. | en_US |
dc.identifier.orcid | https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4562-6555 | |
mit.license | PUBLISHER_CC | en_US |
mit.metadata.status | Complete | |