Issues and progress in the prediction of ocean submesoscale features and internal waves

Abstract

Data-constrained dynamical ocean modeling for the purpose of detailed forecasting and prediction continues to evolve and improve in quality. Modeling methods and computational capabilities have each improved. The result is that mesoscale phenomena can be modeled with skill, given sufficient data. However, many submesoscale features are less well modeled and remain largely unpredicted from a deterministic event standpoint, and possibly also from a statistical property standpoint. A multi-institution project is underway with goals of uncovering more of the details of a few submesoscale processes, working toward better predictions of their occurrence and their variability. A further component of our project is application of the new ocean models to ocean acoustic modeling and prediction. This paper focuses on one portion of the ongoing work: Efforts to link nonhydrostatic-physics models of continental-shelf nonlinear internal wave evolution to data-driven regional models. Ocean front-related effects are also touched on.