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dc.contributor.authorKostov, Yavor Krasimirov
dc.contributor.authorHausmann, Ute
dc.contributor.authorFerreira, David
dc.contributor.authorShepherd, Theodore G.
dc.contributor.authorBitz, Cecilia M.
dc.contributor.authorMarshall, John C
dc.contributor.authorArmour, Kyle
dc.contributor.authorScott, Jeremy
dc.date.accessioned2015-07-24T12:14:02Z
dc.date.available2015-07-24T12:14:02Z
dc.date.issued2014-06
dc.identifier.issn1364-503X
dc.identifier.issn1471-2962
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/97891
dc.description.abstractIn recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around ‘climate response functions’ (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to ‘step’ changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate.en_US
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherRoyal Societyen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0040en_US
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attributionen_US
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/en_US
dc.sourceThe Royal Societyen_US
dc.titleThe ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcingen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.citationMarshall, J., K. C. Armour, J. R. Scott, Y. Kostov, U. Hausmann, D. Ferreira, T. G. Shepherd, and C. M. Bitz. “The Ocean’s Role in Polar Climate Change: Asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic Responses to Greenhouse Gas and Ozone Forcing.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 372, no. 2019 (June 2, 2014): 20130040–20130040.en_US
dc.contributor.departmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Scienceen_US
dc.contributor.departmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciencesen_US
dc.contributor.mitauthorMarshall, John C.en_US
dc.contributor.mitauthorArmour, Kyle C.en_US
dc.contributor.mitauthorScott, Jeffery R.en_US
dc.contributor.mitauthorKostov, Yavor Krasimiroven_US
dc.contributor.mitauthorHausmann, Uteen_US
dc.relation.journalPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciencesen_US
dc.eprint.versionFinal published versionen_US
dc.type.urihttp://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticleen_US
eprint.statushttp://purl.org/eprint/status/PeerRevieweden_US
dspace.orderedauthorsMarshall, J.; Armour, K. C.; Scott, J. R.; Kostov, Y.; Hausmann, U.; Ferreira, D.; Shepherd, T. G.; Bitz, C. M.en_US
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8195-5938
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9230-3591
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4099-5789
mit.licensePUBLISHER_CCen_US
mit.metadata.statusComplete


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