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dc.contributor.authorKozar, Michael E.
dc.contributor.authorMann, Michael E.
dc.contributor.authorEvans, Jenni L.
dc.contributor.authorEmanuel, Kerry Andrew
dc.date.accessioned2015-07-31T17:27:10Z
dc.date.available2015-07-31T17:27:10Z
dc.date.issued2013-12
dc.date.submitted2013-11
dc.identifier.issn2169897X
dc.identifier.issn2169-8996
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/97937
dc.description.abstractThe observed historical record of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) is relatively short and is subject to potential biases owing to a lack of observation platforms such as aircraft reconnaissance and satellite imagery in earlier decades. Therefore, studies of long-term variability in TC activity are hindered by the limitations and uncertainty within the historical data. An alternative approach is to study long-term Atlantic TC variability within the framework of a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model simulation. We have taken such an approach using a simulation of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate System Model 1.4 forced with estimated natural and anthropogenic forcing over the past millennium. Atmospheric variables from the long-term model simulation are used to drive a recently developed downscaling relationship that simulates TC genesis and tracking over the course of the 1150 year model simulation. This downscaling process generates a long-term synthetic TC track data set, free of observational biases, though subject to limitations in the model climatology. The synthetic TC data are used to perform an analysis of long-term variability in Atlantic TCs, specifically focusing on TC landfalls, within the context of the coupled model simulation. Ultimately, analysis of various TC time series reveals that counts of landfalling TCs and even landfalling hurricanes track relatively well with the total basin-wide TC activity on multidecadal and longer timescales.en_US
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)en_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013jd020380en_US
dc.rightsArticle is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.en_US
dc.sourceMIT web domainen_US
dc.titleLong-term variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity downscaled from a coupled model simulation of the last millenniumen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.citationKozar, Michael E., Michael E. Mann, Kerry A. Emanuel, and Jenni L. Evans. “Long-Term Variations of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Downscaled from a Coupled Model Simulation of the Last Millennium.” J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118, no. 24 (December 17, 2013): 13,383–13,392. © 2013 American Geophysical Unionen_US
dc.contributor.departmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciencesen_US
dc.contributor.departmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climateen_US
dc.contributor.departmentWoods Hole Oceanographic Institutionen_US
dc.contributor.mitauthorEmanuel, Kerry Andrewen_US
dc.relation.journalJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheresen_US
dc.eprint.versionFinal published versionen_US
dc.type.urihttp://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticleen_US
eprint.statushttp://purl.org/eprint/status/PeerRevieweden_US
dspace.orderedauthorsKozar, Michael E.; Mann, Michael E.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Evans, Jenni L.en_US
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082
mit.licensePUBLISHER_POLICYen_US
mit.metadata.statusComplete


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