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Total volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depths and implications for global climate change

Author(s)
Barnes, J. E.; Burlakov, V. D.; Deshler, T.; Dolgii, S. I.; Herber, A. B.; Nagai, T.; Neely, R. R.; Nevzorov, A. V.; Ritter, C.; Sakai, T.; Santer, B. D.; Sato, M.; Schmidt, A.; Uchino, O.; Vernier, J. P.; Ridley, David Andrew; Solomon, Susan; ... Show more Show less
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Abstract
Understanding the cooling effect of recent volcanoes is of particular interest in the context of the post-2000 slowing of the rate of global warming. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth above 15 km have demonstrated that small-magnitude volcanic eruptions substantially perturb incoming solar radiation. Here we use lidar, Aerosol Robotic Network, and balloon-borne observations to provide evidence that currently available satellite databases neglect substantial amounts of volcanic aerosol between the tropopause and 15 km at middle to high latitudes and therefore underestimate total radiative forcing resulting from the recent eruptions. Incorporating these estimates into a simple climate model, we determine the global volcanic aerosol forcing since 2000 to be −0.19 ± 0.09 Wm[superscript −2]. This translates into an estimated global cooling of 0.05 to 0.12°C. We conclude that recent volcanic events are responsible for more post-2000 cooling than is implied by satellite databases that neglect volcanic aerosol effects below 15 km.
Date issued
2014-11
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/99152
Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Citation
Ridley, D. A., S. Solomon, J. E. Barnes, V. D. Burlakov, T. Deshler, S. I. Dolgii, A. B. Herber, et al. “Total Volcanic Stratospheric Aerosol Optical Depths and Implications for Global Climate Change.” Geophysical Research Letters 41, no. 22 (November 25, 2014): 7763–7769. © 2014 American Geophysical Union
Version: Final published version
ISSN
00948276

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