Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing
Author(s)
O'Doherty, Simon; Miller, Benjamin R.; Harth, C. M.; Salameh, P. K.; Arnold, T.; Weiss, R. F.; Krummel, P. B.; Steele, L. P.; Fraser, P. J.; Young, D.; Simmonds, P. G.; Rigby, Matthew; Muhle, Jens; Prinn, Ronald G; Ivy, Diane J; ... Show more Show less
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Atmospheric measurements show that emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons are now the primary drivers of the positive growth in synthetic greenhouse gas (SGHG) radiative forcing. We infer recent SGHG emissions and examine the impact of future emissions scenarios, with a particular focus on proposals to reduce HFC use under the Montreal Protocol. If these proposals are implemented, overall SGHG radiative forcing could peak at around 355 mW m[superscript −2] in 2020, before declining by approximately 26% by 2050, despite continued growth of fully fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to “no HFC policy” projections, this amounts to a reduction in radiative forcing of between 50 and 240 mW m[superscript −2] by 2050 or a cumulative emissions saving equivalent to 0.5 to 2.8 years of CO2 emissions at current levels. However, more complete reporting of global HFC emissions is required, as less than half of global emissions are currently accounted for.
Date issued
2014-04Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science; Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary SciencesJournal
Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher
Wiley Blackwell
Citation
Rigby, M., R. G. Prinn, S. O’Doherty, B. R. Miller, D. Ivy, J. Muhle, C. M. Harth, et al. “Recent and Future Trends in Synthetic Greenhouse Gas Radiative Forcing.” Geophysical Research Letters 41, no. 7 (April 4, 2014): 2623–2630. © 2014 American Geophysical Union
Version: Final published version
ISSN
00948276