The Role of Inner-Core Moisture in Tropical Cyclone Predictability and Practical Forecast Skill

Author(s)
Zhang, Fuqing; Emanuel, Kerry Andrew
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Abstract
Errors in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are dominated by initial-condition errors out to at least a few days. Initialization errors are usually thought of in terms of position and intensity, but here it is shown that growth of intensity error is at least as sensitive to the specification of inner-core moisture as to that of the wind field. Implications of this finding for tropical cyclone observational strategies and for overall predictability of storm intensity are discussed.
Date issued
2017-07
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/114570
Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Lorenz Center (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Journal
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Citation
Emanuel, Kerry and Fuqing Zhang. “The Role of Inner-Core Moisture in Tropical Cyclone Predictability and Practical Forecast Skill.” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 74, 7 (July 2017): 2315–2324 © 2017 American Meteorological Society
Version: Final published version
ISSN
0022-4928
1520-0469
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