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dc.contributor.authorSanz-Morère, Inés
dc.contributor.authorEastham, Sebastian David
dc.contributor.authorSpeth, Raymond L
dc.contributor.authorBarrett, Steven R. H.
dc.date.accessioned2020-11-30T20:19:43Z
dc.date.available2020-11-30T20:19:43Z
dc.date.issued2020-03
dc.date.submitted2020-03
dc.identifier.issn2328-8930
dc.identifier.issn2328-8930
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/128696
dc.description.abstractThe radiative forcing resulting from condensation clouds behind aircraft (“contrails”) has been estimated to have an effect on the same order of magnitude as all accumulated aviation-attributable CO2. However, contrail impacts are highly uncertain, with estimates of total contrail-driven forcing made in the past five years varying by a factor of 4. Two of the key driving uncertainties are the crystal shape and size, which describe the cloud optical properties. Here we combine data from high-fidelity scattering simulations of single crystals with in situ measurement of bulk contrail ice properties to bound the range of realistic optical properties for contrail ice. Accounting for the full range of measured contrail microphysical evolution pathways, and for a given estimate of contrail coverage, we find that the global net radiative forcing due to contrails in 2015 is between 8.6 and 10.7 mW/m². Relative to the midpoint, this uncertainty range is less than one-quarter of that recently reported in the literature. This reduction in uncertainty is primarily due to the elimination of spheres as a plausible long-term shape for contrail ice, leaving questions of contrail coverage and optical depth as the primary causes of contrail forcing uncertainty.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipNASA (Grant NNX14AT22A)en_US
dc.publisherAmerican Chemical Society (ACS)en_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.0c00150en_US
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licenseen_US
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_US
dc.sourceACSen_US
dc.titleReducing Uncertainty in Contrail Radiative Forcing Resulting from Uncertainty in Ice Crystal Propertiesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.citationSanz-Morère, Inés et al. "Reducing Uncertainty in Contrail Radiative Forcing Resulting from Uncertainty in Ice Crystal Properties." Environmental Science and Technology Letters 7, 6 (March 2020): 371–375 © 2020 American Chemical Societyen_US
dc.contributor.departmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Laboratory for Aviation and the Environmenten_US
dc.contributor.departmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronauticsen_US
dc.relation.journalEnvironmental Science and Technology Lettersen_US
dc.eprint.versionFinal published versionen_US
dc.type.urihttp://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticleen_US
eprint.statushttp://purl.org/eprint/status/PeerRevieweden_US
dspace.date.submission2020-06-10T18:41:42Z
mit.journal.volume7en_US
mit.journal.issue6en_US
mit.licensePUBLISHER_CC


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