A reduction in the sea surface warming rate in the South China Sea during 1999–2010

Abstract

Abstract The South China Sea (SCS) experienced a significant reduction in warming rate (− 0.01 °C decade−1,

$$p>0.10$$

p > 0.10

) during 1999–2010 following an accelerated and unprecedented warming (+ 0.15 °C decade−1,

$$p<0.01$$

p < 0.01

) in the last three decades (1970–1998). However, most global climate models of the CMIP5 RCP4.5 scenario failed to capture this SCS warming slowdown. In this study, we identify two drivers through numerical simulations by using a regional high-resolution, ocean–atmosphere coupled climate model: the major variance (75%) in the sea surface warming slowdown could be explained by the strengthened winter monsoon over the SCS, and the minor variance (12%) could be explained by the changes in the upper ocean circulations. The winter monsoon over the SCS is likely linked to the La Niña-like SST pattern in the eastern tropical Pacific, which strengthens the Walker circulation and results in anticyclonic circulation over the northwestern Pacific. This enhanced winter monsoon is the atmospheric driver that slows down the SCS basin-scale warming, while the largest reduction of the warming rate occurs in the northern SCS that can be attributed to the oceanic throughflow via the Luzon Strait. These findings could have important implications for future climate projections over the SCS and adjacent oceans.